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Falling commodity prices, rising risk aversion, and now the threat of currency de-pegging by oil exporters, are all expected to take their toll. Neil Mellor, a senior currency strategist at Bank of New York in London, said the increased negative news flow has clearly refocused minds on the outlook for growth and away from inflation – "which we believe has been fueling the likes of the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars. Last week, the final straw for commodity currencies appears to have come from signs that the subprime crisis may well drag on for some time yet and take more of a toll on global growth prospects than initially expected. Favorable terms of trade developments have shielded their external balances from any damage from currency strength, but the deficits remain large," noted Daragh Maher, a senior currency strategist with Calyon Credit Agricole in London. As oil exporting countries in the Gulf region have made clear in recent weeks that their currency pegs against the dollar are under severe pressure as the dollar’s decline creates inflationary costs and threatens their buoyant economies with a sharp downturn. Early Monday in Europe, the dollar was under pressure once again as Group of 20 finance ministers meeting in Cape Town over the weekend failed to make any specific concerns about its recent slide, and OPEC ministers meeting in Riyadh faced calls from Iran and Venezuela to consider pricing crude prices in currencies other than the dollar. read more

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Sterling was hit hard across the board last week on renewed expectation for further rate cut from BoE after dovish Inflation Report. Bernanke’s emphasis on headline inflation raised some doubts on whether Fed will cut rates in Dec as markets expected. The turning point was the BoE Inflation Report, which forecasts that inflation in UK will settle at its target of 2. Despite recent hawkish comments from Fed members, interest rate futures are still pricing over 80% chance of a Dec rate cut from Fed and will look into the publication on Tuesday for further adjustments. Markets are expecting BoE to cut rates in as early as Q1 after last week’s dovish BoE Inflation Report and will look into the vote split and views of the MPC members to further solidify this view. Other data include German PPI, GDP, Eurozone Current Account, industrial orders and PMI manufacturing and services indices, Swiss Trade Balance and Japan Trade Balance. read more

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OTTAWA–The strong Canadian dollar sent factory sales tumbling in September, yet another indicator that the loonie’s surge is beginning dampen economic growth. The factory numbers came a day after the Bank of Canada’s Paul Jenkins warned that Canada’s economy will feel the pinch if the loonie remains this high. Nash called for targeted tax breaks to stimulate production in the most acutely affected industries, and said governments should strive to purchase from Canadian rather than foreign suppliers. The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters and the Canadian Auto Workers have called on the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates to dampen the dollar. read more

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Other Gulf currency forwards are also pricing in larger appreciations after Central Bank Governor Sultan Nasser Al Suweidi’s remarks in Tokyo. Yesterday one-year dirham forwards were -830, indicating an appreciation of 2. The UAE has ruled out following the example of Kuwait, which broke ranks with its neighbours in May and switched its peg from the dollar to currency basket, saying dollar weakness was fuelling inflation by making some imports more expensive. Qatar riyal forwards also widened to -452 for one year and -663 for two years yesterday, signalling markets expected an appreciation of 1. One-year Saudi riyal forwards were -430, meaning traders see a 1. read more

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What do the EXPERTS say ? read more

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Reuters is the world’s largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters. Reuters journalists are subject to the Reuters Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. read more

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The comments reflect growing European urgency over China's multibillion-dollar trade surpluses, an area where Washington long took the lead in lobbying Beijing for reforms. European leaders will press Beijing for action to lower barriers to foreign investment and to let its currency, the yuan, rise more quickly in value, Abou told reporters. The European Union is China's biggest foreign trading partner, ahead of the United States and Japan, but Europe has seen its deficit with China swell quickly in recent years. European companies say Chinese officials appear to be blocking them from expanding in finance and other industries in an attempt to nurture China's own companies, violating Beijing's free-trade pledges. Asked whether the EU would coordinate more closely with Washington and imitate the United States in filing more complaints against China in the World Trade Organization, Abou said Europe had no fixed group of allies and sometimes was opposed by the United States on trade issues. read more

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