Archives for September 2007

?The Important Ways to Keep From Losing in the Forex Markets

The idea behind forex trading is of course to make money. However, like any speculative investment, there is a change of loosing money. The same holds true with the stock market and the commodities market, and in business itself. Any investment that has a chance of great gain will also have a certain level of risk. As a forex trader you will want to minimize your chance of risk. Do it in these ways.

Stay informed. Read the news magazines and political events journals. Know what is happening in the world politically.

Have a good understanding of economics. Take a college econ course if you never have. Read the journals of economics and books by economists like John Maynard Keyes, Kenneth Galbraith and Walter Williams.

Read periodicals like the Wall Street Journal and Business Investors Daily.

Open up a practice demo account and use it before you get into the market.

Have a broker you trust.

Cultivate friendships with other traders who know their stuff.

Look at the historical trends. Read and study forex charts.

Take a course in forex trading to get your skills up to snuff.

Research forex on the Internet.

And finally, only invest money that you can actually afford to loose if worse comes to worse. Then you won’t be out of the game completely.

Forex trading is not a game for the timid. Jerry Sparks was a forex trader who did very well for years. He followed all of the rules. His college degree was in history with a minor in political science and he went back and took extra courses in economics and business. Jerry stayed informed. He watched CNN, CNBC, MSNBC and Fox News often. He went to all the major web sites and read several magazines. He also spent time with a demo account before he got into the market in a big way. Jerry was determined to make a killing, and he eventually did. Jerry also only invested money that he had designated as risk capital. He could still live without it if needed.

Sam Franks, Jerry’s friend, didn’t do as well. Sam never took an economics course in his life and in fact was bored by Economics. He knew nothing of history or politics and didn’t even know who John Maynard Keyes was. Sam took his life savings and invested in forex trading without having spent time practicing with a demo account. He knew nothing of the currencies he was trading, and didn’t know what historical trends were, or what activity was occurring. He knew nothing of inflation, and in the end he lost some of his money. The difference in these two people is important. One was prepared and the other was not prepared. One made money and the other did not. One did his homework and one neglected it. What you can learn from this is that it is better to be prepared.

By knowing something about other countries and the activities happening over there, you’ll be better able to make educated guesses. For instance, if there is a great deal of inflation in a country, you may not want to invest in its currency. However, if you are hedging against that currency you may do well. Remember that it is never too late to learn. There are many good courses available online, and offline. There are many great books to read. Many economists write newspaper and magazine columns and many have web sites you can go to. By doing so you’ll be able to learn at the feet of the masters. See how their minds work, and what currencies they are currently investing in, and you’ll be in a better place when it comes time to make those hard decisions yourself. Also going online and meeting other people in forums and chat rooms who share your interest will give you more insight and knowledge. Like anything else in life, forex trading is a job that you must prepare for. The better educated you are, and the better prepared you are, the more likely you will be to be successful.

?Ride the Wave ??” The Elliott Wave Theory for Forex Markets

One of the best known and least understood theories of technical analysis in forex trading is the Elliot Wave Theory. Developed in the 1920s by Ralph Nelson Elliot as a method of predicting trends in the stock market, the Elliot Wave theory applies fractal mathematics to movements in the market to make predictions based on crowd behavior. In its essence, the Elliot Wave theory states that the market ??” in this case, the forex market ??” moves in a series of 5 swings upward and 3 swings back down, repeated perpetually. But if it were that simple, everyone would be making a killing by catching the wave and riding it until just before it crashes on the shore. Obviously, there’s a lot more to it.

One of the things that makes riding the Elliot Wave so tricky is timing ??” of all the major wave theories, it’s the only one that doesn’t put a time limit on the reactions and rebounds of the market. A single In fact, the theories of fractal mathematics makes it clear that there are multiple waves within waves within waves. Interpreting the data and finding the right curves and crests is a tricky process, which gives rise to the contention that you can put 20 experts on the Elliot Wave theory in one room and they will never reach an agreement on which way a stock ??” or in this case, a currency ??” is headed.

Elliot Wave Basics

? Every action is followed by a reaction.

It’s a standard rule of physics that applies to the crowd behavior on which the Elliot Wave theory is based. If prices drop, people will buy. When people buy, the demand increases and supply decreases driving prices back up. Nearly every system that uses trend analysis to predict the movements of the currency market is based on determining when those actions will cause reactions that make a trade profitable.

? There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a “5-3″ move).

The Elliot Wave theory is that market activity can be predicted as a series of five waves that move in one direction (the trend) followed by three ‘corrective’ waves that move the market back toward its starting point.

? A 5-3 move completes a cycle.

And here’s where the theory begins to get truly complex. Like the mirror reflecting a mirror that reflects a mirror that reflects a mirror, the each 5-3 wave is not only complete in itself, it is a superset of a smaller series of waves, and a subset of a larger set of 5-3 waves ??” the next principle.

? This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave.

In Elliot Wave notation, the 5 waves that fit the trend are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 (impulses). The three correcting waves are called a, b and c (corrections). Each of these waves is made up of a 5-3 series of waves, and each of those is made up of a 5-3 series of waves. The 5-3 cycle that you’re studying is an impulse and correction in the next ascending 5-3 series.

? The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each may vary.

A 5-3 wave may take decades to complete ??” or it may be over in minutes. Traders who are successful in using the Elliot Wavy theory to trade in the currency market say that the trick is timing trades to coincide with the beginning and end of impulse 3 to minimize your risk and maximize your profit.

Because the timing of each sequence of waves varies so much, using the Elliot Wave theory is very much a matter of interpretation. Identifying the best time to enter and leave a trade is dependent on being able to see and follow the pattern of larger and smaller waves, and to know when to trade and when to get out based on the patterns you identify.

The key is in interpreting the pattern correctly ??” in finding the right starting point. Once you learn to see the wave patterns and identify them correctly, say those who are experts, you’ll see how they apply in every facet of forex trading, and will be able to use those patterns to trigger your decisions whether you’re day trading or in it for the long haul.

The Forex Market

The Forex market is an incredible market to trade currencies. Forex stands for foreign exchange and the Forex market is the largest financial market in the world. The Forex market trades close to 2 trillion dollars each day and since there is no center for the market, continues 24 hours a day starting from Sydney, Australia, which are home to one the major currencies.

Many people trade in the Forex market due to the fact that it is a great way for day traders to profit on investments that they make each day. Another big plus is that the technology has advanced, so that almost anyone can trade Forex from the privacy of their own home.

The Forex market usually trades many global currencies, however many Forex market traders usually stick to the majors which include the US dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, British Pound and Canadian Dollar. While other currencies are traded on the Forex market, these major currencies make up an overwhelming chunk of the Forex market.

Almost anyone from anywhere can trade Forex. If you are just starting out and would love to trade in the Forex market, you can find many courses and tutorials that can help get you started in no time. Many trading sites have sprung up and offer you to trade on their sites. They offer real time quotes, great data and charts, background information and an easy platform to trade in the Forex market. So if you are interested in a new way to invest, look into the Forex market.

Forex Forums

Forex forums are great places to go to talk to other Forex traders. There are several great Forex forums available to anyone, as well as closed forums that are open to members of a specific broker or tool. If you would like to chat with other traders, ask questions, and find out about great tools and trends in Forex, check out Forex forums.

No matter what kind of information you are looking for, you can usually find it on Forex forums. Forex forums are a great way to communicate with people who are all over the world and enjoy the same interests as you, in this case Forex. There are several Forex forums that provide a great deal of information on the industry that are free of charge to read and usually only require signing up to post.

Special Forex forums that might be linked to a broker or specific software usually require some membership fee or a paid purchase of some kind. While many people usually have their favorite forums, it is important to check out a few forums to find ones that are helpful for your Forex trading.

One of the biggest uses of Forex forums are for reviews of different products and talking about trading and spotting trends. Most Forex forums members talk in detail about the issues they are having trading Forex and using certain Forex tools. Forex forums are great for unadulterated information on sensitive subjects by people in the know and trading Forex everyday. If you are looking for great Forex Information, check out Forex forums.

Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

FOREX traders almost always rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategies. There are two basic types of FOREX analysis – technical and fundamental. This article will look at fundamental analysis and how it used in FOREX trading.

Fundamental analysis refers to political and economic conditions that may affect currency prices. FOREX traders using fundamental analysis rely on news reports to gather information about unemployment rates, economic policies, inflation, and growth rates.

Fundamental analysis is often used to get an overview of currency movements and to provide a broad picture of economic conditions affecting a specific currency. Most traders rely on technical analysis for plotting entry and exit points into the market and supplement their findings with fundamental analysis.

Currency prices on the FOREX are affected by the forces of supply and demand, which in turn are affected by economic conditions. The two most important economic factors affecting supply and demand are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The strength of the economy is affected by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), foreign investment and trade balance.

Indicators

Various indicators are released by government and academic sources. They are reliable measures of economic health and are followed by all sectors of the investment market. Indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but some are released weekly.

Two of the most important fundamental indicators are interest rates and international trade. Other indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Durable Goods Orders, Producer Price Index (PPI), Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), and retail sales.

Interest Rates – can have either a strengthening or weakening effect on a particular currency. On the one hand, high interest rates attract foreign investment which will strengthen the local currency. On the other hand, stock market investors often react to interest rate increases by selling off their holdings in the belief that higher borrowing costs will adversely affect many companies. Stock investors may sell off their holdings causing a downturn in the stock market and the national economy.

Determining which of these two effects will predominate depends on many complex factors, but there is usually a consensus amongst economic observers of how particular interest rate changes will affect the economy and the price of a currency.

International Trade – Trade balance which shows a deficit (more imports than exports) is usually an unfavourable indicator. Deficit trade balances means that money is flowing out of the country to purchase foreign-made goods and this may have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually, however, market expectations dictate whether a deficit trade balance is unfavourable or not. If a county habitually operates with a deficit trade balance this has already been factored into the price of its currency. Trade deficits will only affect currency prices when they are more than market expectations.

Other indicators include the CPI – a measurement of the cost of living, and the PPI – a measurement of the cost of producing goods. The GDP measures the value of all goods and services within a country, while the M2 Money Supply measures the total amount of all currency.

There are 28 major indicators used in the United States. Indicators have strong effects on financial markets so FOREX traders should be aware of them when preparing strategies. Up-to-date information is available on many websites and many FOREX brokers supply this information as part of their trading service.

?What Drives Traders to Forex Markets

With the Forex market being the biggest financial market on the globe, it is no wonder millions of people are drawn to it. When it comes to investing, currency trading it where it’s at right now. It is one of the fastest growing investment forms to date. It is important to note however that although the Forex is called a “market” by name, it is not a traditional “market”. All trading is done over the telephone or via computers. There is no central location for the trading in any country. It is actually a cash inter-bank or inter-dealer system formed in 1971. This was the time when floating exchange rates came about. The Forex is huge today, with over 3.5 trillion levels exchanged each day. It is clearly one of the most popular forms of trading worldwide.

Availability

One of the best features of the Forex market is that it never closes. This is a system that takes place all day long, every day of the year. There are people in every country that are waiting to trade. You could wake up at 2 in the morning, no matter where you are, and expect to find trading occurring in full force. The availability of the market is something that is very appealing to some people. When dealing with foreign currency, there is no other way. The market must remain open for 24 hours because of the time differences and such. Traders capitalize on the wide range of trading time and appreciate that aspect of the Forex. With other markets that close daily, there is sometimes a sense of anxiety about what may or may not happen overnight. This is not an issue with the Forex market.

Excitement

Along with its never ending trading, the Forex is attractive to many traders because of the excitement it can bring. Trading is something that can be very exciting and the Forex offers never ending excitement for those willing to partake. The Forex market is so large, with $1.5 to $3.5 trillion dollars per day, that it allows nearly perfect liquidity. The size alone makes this market a joy ride for traders. If you are looking for endless excitement, you will be glad to know that you can certainly find it in the Forex market. Unlike the other markets, the Forex is great because you can enjoy that excitement all day long. You won’t have to deal with the anxieties that occur with other markets after closing time. You can know that no matter what, the Forex will be open and you will be able to deal with business as needed. This adds a fun element to trading with the Forex, which can be removed by stress in other markets.

It’s For Everyone

In previous times, the market was only for the rich. One had to typically place at least a $1million cash deposit down with the bank to even begin trading. This made it difficult for anyone but rich people to trade. Today however, the Forex is open to smaller scaled traders as well. Most of the traders are actually doing so from home. Lower margin requirements are very attractive to the smaller traders. They allow them to participate with the larger traders on the same scale, but at a more equal position. With the Internet thriving year after year, home based traders can get in with the larger traders via their computer, which was not always the case. Before, only large traders could even access the Forex at any level. Today, the Forex is for everyone.

As you can see, the Forex market is one that offers excitement, availability, and opportunity. These three reasons are what draw millions of people to the Forex each day. It is something that once you try it, you will not want to stop. The opportunities are endless, which is why the Forex is a popular topic in business schools today. If you are interested in learning this market, check with your local college to see if there are any classes offered about the topic. You will need to be aware of the rules and regulations before you begin trading. Once you have the information you need, jump on in and start trading right away!