Archives for August 2007

?Five Ways to Avoid Forex Scams

Whenever there is an opportunity to make large amounts of money, there will be people who are eager to jump right in and start making money. And where there are people who are eager to get rich quick with a minimum of effort on their part, there are fraudsters waiting to take their money. Experienced traders are wise enough to avoid the frauds ??” it’s the new traders who are most vulnerable to the forex scams that are slipping into the currency exchange market.

The U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), which regulates futures and commodities trading, warns new investors to be wary of frauds and scams that promise huge profits from your investments, in and out of the Forex market. The CFTC has issued several Consumer Fraud Alerts in connection with foreign currency trading. They offer the following tips to help you avoid being scammed.

Be skeptical of high-profit-low-risk come-ons.

“I made $1900 in one minute!” touts one sidebar ad for a Forex trading company. Ads that promise high returns on small investments with little or no risk to you are tempting bait. The fact is that while there are certainly big profits to be made in forex, there are correspondingly large losses. And most novice traders drop out of active trading by the end of their first year because they can’t afford the risk.

Be suspicious. Period.

Before you part with a penny, thoroughly check out the company or trader you’re planning to do business with. Check the CFTC’s consumer fraud alert page. Check to see if the company is registered with the CFTC, or is a member of the National Futures Association. Check to see if there’s any disciplinary action against the firm or company. Get even more basic. Get a valid address and telephone number, and verify that it belongs to the company. Check to be sure the person you’re dealing with actually works for the company. Especially if you’re doing business on the Internet, it’s very easy for a scammer to fake credentials.

Be wary of sending money over the Internet.

The Internet has made it incredibly easy for scammers to operate. It only costs $6.95 a month to have a professional looking web site hosted ??” that’s pennies a day to reach millions of potential marks. Before you part with credit card numbers, bank account transfer permissions or wire transfers, be sure to check out the company with all the authorities listed above.

Beware high pressure sales tactics.

Legitimate dealers don’t need to contact you with unsolicited email, or pressure you into doing business with them. If someone is pushing you to invest right now, tonight, this moment, it should set off huge warning signals in your head. A real dealer is more concerned with keeping you as a customer for the long haul. He’ll be patient while you check out his credentials and reputation. A phony dealer can’t afford that luxury ??” he needs to get you on the hook right now, or risk losing his score.

Be cautious of companies that tell you they’ll trade for you on the ‘interbank’ market.

The interbank market is a term for a loose network of currency traders that include banks, financial institutions and large corporations. Fraudulent currency trading firms often tell customers that they’ll trade for them on the interbank market where the prices are better. It should be a warning signal to you to stay away.

While technically not ‘scams’, you should also be wary of paying good money for training courses that promise you systems that are ‘guaranteed’ to earn you high profits. If the course advertises that their system will earn you huge profits with minimal risk, or guarantee you 40% return on your money in six weeks, take the promises with a huge grain of salt. Experienced traders understand that the forex market is a time market ??” while it’s possible to make large amounts of money in short-term trades, finding those profitable trades is a matter of being in the right place at the right time… which means putting in the time and the effort to be there.

They also understand that they’ll lose more often than they win ??” the trick is to keep your losses short and your profits long. Any company that guarantees that you’ll make a profit on all or most of your profits is coloring their advertising. Stick with trusted companies whose credentials you can verify and whose background you can check.

Risks of FOREX Trading

Despite the claims you may see on some FOREX web sites, FOREX is not risk-free. You are trading with substantial sums of money and there is always a possibility that trades will go against you. There are several trading tools, however, that can minimize your risk, and with caution, and above all education, the FOREX trader can learn how to trade profitably and while minimizing losses.

Scams

FOREX scams were fairly common a few years ago. The industry has cleaned up considerably since then, but you still need to exercise caution when signing up with a FOREX broker. Do some background checking – reputable FOREX brokers will be associated with large financial institutions like banks or insurance companies and they will be registered with the proper government agencies. In the United States brokers should be registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). You can also check with your local Consumer Protection Bureau and the Better Business Bureau.

Risks

Assuming you are dealing with a reputable broker, there are still risks to FOREX trading. Transactions are subject to unexpected rate changes, volatile markets and political events.

Exchange Rate Risk – refers to the fluctuations in currency prices over a trading period. Prices can fall rapidly resulting in substantial losses unless stop loss orders are used when trading FOREX. Stop loss orders specify that the open position should be closed if currency prices pass a predetermined level. Stop loss orders can be used in conjunction with limit orders to automate FOREX trading – limit orders specify an open position should be closed at a specified profit target.

Interest Rate Risk – can result from discrepancies between the interest rates in the two countries represented by the currency pair in a FOREX quote. This discrepancy can result in variations from the expected profit or loss of a particular FOREX transaction.

Credit Risk – is the possibility that one party in a FOREX transaction may not honor their debt when the deal is closed. This may happen when a bank or financial institution declares insolvency. Credit risk is minimized by dealing on regulated exchanges which require members to be monitored for credit worthiness.

Country Risk – is associated with governments that may become involved in foreign exchange markets by limiting the flow of currency. There is more country risk associated with ‘exotic’ currencies than with major currencies that allow the free trading of their currency.

Limiting Risk

FOREX trading can be risky, but there are ways to limit risk and financial exposure. Every FOREX trader should have a trading strategy – knowing when to enter and exit the market and what kind of movements to expect. Developing strategies requires education – the key to limiting FOREX risk. At all times follow the basic rule: Do not place money in the FOREX that you cannot afford to lose.

Every FOREX trader needs to know at least the basics about technical analysis and how to read financial charts. He should study chart movements and indicators and understand how charts are interpreted. There is a vast amount of information on FOREX trading available both on the Internet and in print. If you want to be successful at FOREX, know what you are doing.

Even the most knowledgeable traders, however, can’t predict with absolute certainty how the market will behave. For this reason, every FOREX transaction should take advantage of available tools designed to minimize loss. Stop-loss orders are the most common ways of minimizing risk when placing an entry order. A stop-loss order contains instructions to exit your position if the currency price reaches a certain point. If you take a long position (expecting the price to rise) you would place a stop loss order below current market price. If you take a short position (expecting the price to fall) you would place a stop loss order above current market price.

As an example, if you take a short position on USD/CDN it means you expect the US dollar to fall against the Canadian dollar. The quote is USD/CDN 1.2138/43 – you can sell US$1 for 1.2138 CDN dollars or sell 1.2143 CDN dollars for US$1.

You place an order like this:

Sell USD: 1 standard lot USD/CDN @ 1.2138 = $121,380 CDN
Pip Value: 1 pip = $10
Stop-Loss: 1.2148
Margin: $1,000 (1%)

You are selling US$100,000 and buying CDN$121,380. Your stop loss order will be executed if the dollar goes above 1.2148, in which case you will lose $100.

However, USD/CDN falls to 1.2118/23. You can now sell $1 US for 1.2118 CDN or sell 1.2123 CDN for $1 US.

Because you entered the transaction by selling US dollars (buying short), you must now buy back US dollars and sell CDN dollars to realize your profit.

You buy back US$100,000 at the current USD/CDN rate of 1.2123 for a cost of 121,223 CDN. Since you originally sold them for CDN$121,380 you made a profit of $157 Canadian dollars or US$129.51 (157 divided by the current exchange rate of 1.2123).

?Forecasting Forex Trading ??” What This Means for You

For those who trade using the Forex, or foreign currency exchange, knowing how to forecast the Forex can make the difference between trading successfully and losing money. When you begin learning about Forex trading, it is vital that you understand how to forecast the Forex trading market.

There are two major methods that are used when forecasting the Forex. Each system is used to understand how the Forex works and how the fluctuations in the market can affect traders and currency rates. The two methods that are most often used are called technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Both methods differ in their own ways, but each one can help the Forex trader understand how the rates are affecting the currency trade. Most of the time, experienced traders and brokers know each method and use a mixture of the two to trade on the Forex.

The first method used in forecasting foreign currency exchange is called technical analysis. This method uses predictions by looking at trends in charts and graphs from past Forex market happenings. This system is based on solid events that have actually taken place in the Forex in the past. Many experience Forex traders and brokers rely on this system because it follows actual trends and can be quite reliable.

When looking at the technical analysis in the Forex, there are three basic principles that are used to make projections. These principles are based on the market action in relation to current events, trends in price movements and past Forex history. When the market action is looked at, everything from supply and demand, current politics and the current state of the market are taken into consideration. It is usually agreed that the actual price of the Forex is a direct reflection of current events.

The trends in price movement are another factor when using technical analysis. This means that there are patterns in the market behavior that have been known to be a contributing factor in the Forex. These patterns are usually repeating over time and can often be a consistent factor when forecasting the Forex market. Another factor that is taken into consideration when forecasting the Forex is history. There are definite patterns in the market and these are usually reliable factors. There are several charts that are taken into consideration when forecasting the Forex market using technical analysis. The five categories that are look at include indicators, number theory, waves, gaps and trends.

Most of these can be quite complicated for those who are inexperienced using the Forex. Most professional Forex brokers understand these charts and have the ability to offer their clients well-informed advice about Forex trading.

Another way that experienced brokers and traders in the Forex use to forecast the trends is called fundamental analysis. This method is used to forecast the future of price movements based on events that have not taken place yet. This can range from political changes, environmental factors and even natural disasters. Important factors and statistics are used to predict how it will affect supply and demand and the rates of the Forex. Most of the time, this method is not a reliable factor on its own, but is used in conjunction with technical analysis to form opinion about the changes in the Forex market.

When fundamental analysis is used to forecast the Forex, it is important to remember that this method only focuses on what should happen in a certain market based on current events. Unlike technical analysis, it does not look at trends or the history of the market to make a forecast. It looks at current supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather and the current state of the government all over the world.

For those interesting in being involved with Forex trading, a basic understanding of how the system works is essential. Understanding both forecasting systems and how they can predict the market trends will help Forex traders be successful with their trading. Most experienced traders and brokers involved with the Forex use a system of both technical and fundamental information when making decisions about the Forex market. When used together, they can provide the trader with invaluable information about where the currency trends are headed.