Archives for November 2007

?Who or what is Fibonacci and What does it have to do with the Forex Market?

Fibonacci strategies in forex trading are strategies for anticipating and capturing significant turns in stocks, stock indices and exchange-traded funds. They use classic principles and applications of Fibonacci numbers and a trading system known as the Elliott Wave. The idea is to calculate and predict key turning points in the markets, analyze business and economic cycles and identify profitable turning points in interest rate movement. Many forex traders benefit from the system and from Fibonacci. But, who is Fibonacci?

From 1170 to 1250 Fibonacci was the name used by the Italian mathematician Leonardo Pisano. The son of Guilielmo and a member of the Bonacci family, Fibonacci himself sometimes used the name Bigollo, which may mean good-for-nothing traveller. A brilliant mathematician who wrote several books, Fibonacci was a genius ahead of his day. He is most well known today for the sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, etc, which figures prominently in what is today known as Fibonaccian mathematics, and has a quarterly scholarly journal devoted to it. Fibonacci introduced the western world, which until that time had used the Roman numeral system, to the modern decimal system, imported from Babylonia. The Fibonacci number sequence are studied as part of number theory and have applications in the counting of mathematical objects such as sets, permutations and sequences as well as in computer science.

Fibonacci believed that Arabic numerals were simpler and more efficient than Roman numerals. He traveled throughout the Mediterranean world of his day and studied under the major Arab mathematicians of the day, and returned to Pisa around 1200. In the year 1202, when he was 32 years old, he published what he had learned in The Book of Calculation. In it he showed the practical importance of this new to Europeans number system by applying it to commercial accounting and to conversion of weights and measures. He also showed how to apply it to the calculation of interest, money-changing, and many other applications. The book was well received in educated Europe and it had a profound impact on European thought. Still the use of decimal numerals did not become widespread until the invention of printing almost three hundred years later. Fibonacci was honored to be a guest of the Holy Roman Emperor Frederick II who was a fan of mathematics and science. In the year 1240 his city, the Republic of Pisa honored him by paying him a salary from the city.

In practicality Fibonacci’s numbers are used in the run time analysis of Euclid’s algorithm determining he greatest common divisor of two integers. It was also used by Yuri Matiyasevich to solve Hilbert’s tenth problem. The numbers are also used in a formula about diagonals Pascal’s triangle. He said that every positive integer can be written uniquely in a way as the sum of one or more distinct Fibonacci numbers and inn that way the sum does not include any two consecutive numbers, which is called Zeckendorf’s theorem. A sum of Fibonacci numbers that satisfies these ideas is a Zeckendorf representation. They are also used for tuning of musical interments in art to determine the size of formal elements.

The numbers are also commonly found in nature. They have been found in the patterns of leaves, grass and flowers, and branching in bushes and trees. Fibonacci numbers can also be found in the arrangement of tines on a pine cone, in raspberry seeds and other natural areas. Commonly Fibonacci numbers are seen in fractal Fuchsian groups and Kleinian groups, and in the solutions to reaction diffusion differential equations. Genes too and enzymes often show Fibonacci patterns.

Known in his day and recognized as a genius, he was able to see patterns that escaped most others, and only in the modern age of computers are his numbers and patterns able to be utilized anywhere near what he envisioned them to be used for. His translation of Arabic numerals to replace the rather limited and bulky Roman system of numerals is a debt the entire modern world owes to him. And certainly serious forex traders also owe a debt to this man from Pisa.

?The Mysterious Workings of the Exchange Rate and the Impact on Forex

Exchange rates. Euros, dollars, yen, marks, francs; Floating exchange rates, pips, points ??” the whole concept of the exchange rate can be a daunting one for a beginning trader. But understanding how exchange rates work and how they affect forex markets is essential if you’re going to last longer than the time it takes to make one /really/ bad trade. Get ready, get yourself your favorite soothing beverage, and let’s dive in to the mysterious workings of the exchange rate. By the time you’re done with your drink, you’ll have a better understanding of the way the exchange rate works and how it affects the money you make in your trading.

What the heck is an exchange rate?

The exchange rate refers to the relative worth of one type of currency against another. To make it very simple for you, let’s use an exchange rate with which you are already familiar ??” the exchange rate of dollars to dimes. Suppose you have 10 one dollar bills. You know that each of those dollar bills is worth 10 dimes. You could, if you wanted, go to the bank ??” or the corner store ??” and ask to exchange your 10 dollar bills for 100 dimes. The exchange rate would be expressed as DOL/DIM=.10 or DIM/DOL=10. In other words, you can exchange one dollar for 10 dimes or 10 dimes for one dollar.

The same holds true when you expand the definition to include foreign currencies. Instead of dollars and dimes, your dealing with Euros, yen, pounds and francs. EUR/USD=1.1023 means that each euro is worth $1.1023 (yes, in forex we go to four decimal points because of the large volume of trading). In reverse, that would be expressed as USD/EUR=.9071. In other words, if you want to trade US dollars for Euros, it will cost you $1,102.30 to get 1000 Euros.

But exchange rates move up and down! How does that work?

Let’s go back to our dollars and dimes. Let’s say that your corner store has decided that from now on, it will only accept payment in dimes. If you want to buy a gallon of milk there, your dollar bills are now worthless. In order to buy that gallon, you’re going to have to find someone to give you 30 dimes for your three dollars. That works out just fine ??” until there’s a shortage of dimes in the neighborhood. You go to your brother, whose been tossing all his change into a bucket for the last five years and tell him, “I’ll give you three dollar bills for 27 dimes because I need $2.70 to buy a gallon of milk.”

You’ve just effectively changed the currency exchange rate from DOL/DIM=.10 to DOL/DIM=.11. That means every dollar is now worth 11 dimes instead of ten ??” and if you want to buy $100 worth of dimes, you’ll get 90 dimes, not 100.

The same thing happens in the international currency market. If you want to buy goods in Japan, you need to trade with Japanese money. If all you have is dollars, then you need to exchange your dollars for yen. If lots of people are trying to buy yen at the same time, then you’re going to end up paying (exchanging) more dollars for less yen ??” and the products that you’re buying cost you more.

So why would people want to buy more yen?

When a country’s economy is strong, people know that they’ll make more money if they invest in businesses and products in that country. In order to buy products or invest money there, they need to exchange their currency for that country’s currency. If there’s a rumor that a major industry in that country is about to fail, people will want to get out ??” and will start trading in their yen for dollars or Euros or Aussies ??” whichever is the best exchange rate you can get.

So it’s all about supply and demand?

There are a couple of other factors that influence exchange rates. One of those is the interest rate. When you hold currency, you earn interest in that country’s currency at their prevailing rate. If the interest rate is higher for yen than for dollars, then people will trade in their dollars for yen in order to earn a higher rate. A second factor is the inflation rate. When the inflation rate in a country is high, people don’t want to hold that country’s currency since the value of the money is going down. Likewise, if the inflation rate is low, people are more likely to want the country’s currency because the value isn’t expected to go down.

One other important factor in the exchange rate is trade with other countries. If world prices for a country’s exports go up in relation to their imports, they’ll be making more on what they sell than they are spending for what they buy. You can see this most clearly in the price of oil. The US buys a large percentage of its oil from Canada. As the price of oil on the world market increases, the exchange rate of Canadian dollars to US dollars goes down ??” Canadian dollars become more valuable because the Canadian economy is growing stronger.

Obviously, there’s far more to the intricacies of floating currency exchange rates, but this basic primer should help you understand some of the more complex writings on the subject.

Trading Currencies on Margin

The key to FOREX popularity is margin. Without margin, the FOREX would be beyond the reach of the average investor. So, what exactly is margin and how does it work?

Margin accounts allow FOREX traders to control large amounts of currency with a relatively small deposit. Establishing a margin account with a FOREX broker enables you to borrow money from the broker to control currency lots which are usually worth $100,000. The amount of borrowing power your margin account gives you is the leverage. Leverage is usually expressed as a ratio – a leverage of 100:1 means you can control assets worth 100 times your deposit.

What this means in FOREX is that with a 1% margin account you can control standard lots of $100,000 with a $1,000 deposit. Trading on margin increases both profits and losses, and the potential exists for the trader to lose more than his original deposit. With proper safeguards, however, loss can be limited, and usually brokers will terminate a transaction that extends beyond the margin deposit.

Benefits

As we mentioned above, trading on margin gives you more buying power and the potential for more profits (and losses). How does this work, exactly? A 1% margin account allows you to control a currency lot of $100,000 for $1,000. When dealing with $100,000 small changes in the price of the currency can result in large profits or losses.

FOREX currencies are traded in much smaller units than cash. The American dollar, for example, is traded in units down to 4 decimal places. Instead of $1.32 FOREX quotes are seen as $1.3256. The smallest unit in FOREX currencies is called the pip, and when you have a $100,000 each pip of your total lot is worth $10 (when trading American dollars).

If the price of American dollars changes from 1.3256 to 1.3356, that’s a difference of 100 pips which represents a profit or loss of $1000. Without margin, if you had $1000 of currency, the price change from 1.3256 to 1.3356 represents a difference of $10. Significant to the tourist, perhaps, but not the investor.

So the benefit of margin is increased profit potential.

Risks

As there is increased profit potential, there is also increased loss potential. If you are not careful, your entire margin account could quickly be wiped out. If your margin account is 1% and the currency moves just one cent against you, you lose $1000.

FOREX trading, however, has several methods to limit loss. Stop loss orders automatically close your position if the value of the currency crosses a pre-determined point. Stop loss orders allow you to limit your losses to a specified amount while still allowing potential profit taking.

An often overlooked risk is the possibility that your broker may close your position if your potential losses approach the balance of your margin account. You may be riding out a down trend with the expectations of a market reversal, but unless you replenish your margin account you may find your position has been closed. If this happens, you lose all of your margin.

For example:

You sell EUR/USD at 1.2144 (sell 100,000 euros and buy 121,440 US dollars) with the expectation that the euro will fall in price. You have a 1% margin account which means the required margin is $1,214.40. You have $1250 in your margin account, so to enter this position your margin account is left with $35.60.

You have not specified a stop loss order, and after you enter this position the euro suddenly rallies, gaining 0.0263 for a price of 1.2407. 100,000 euros are now worth US$124,070 and your 1% margin requirements have risen to $1,240.70. Depending on the policy of your broker, your position may be automatically closed or the extra funds in your margin account may be used to make up the difference. In any case, if the euro continues to gain value and you wish to ride it out (bad idea) you will have to add more funds to your margin account or risk losing everything.

Another example:

You buy USD/CHF at 1.2623 with the expectation that the US dollar will gain against the Swiss franc. You buy a standard lot of 100,000 American dollars for 126,230 Swiss francs with a margin requirement of 1% or $1,000.

As expected, the US dollar rises to 1.2683 at which point you close your position. You sell 100,000 American dollars for 126,830 Swiss francs for a profit of 600 francs or US$473.08 (600 francs divided by the exchange rate of 1.2683).

FOREX Signals

One of the disadvantages of FOREX trading is the time investment needed to monitor the markets for advantageous entry and exit points. It’s possible to sit in front of a computer monitor for hours watching the markets.

Of course, you can use automated orders such as limits and stops. These allow you to walk away from your computer with the knowledge that your losses will be kept to a minimum, but by doing so, you may miss out on potential profits because your limit order kicks in too soon.

If you don’t have the time to watch your computer monitor and still wish to achieve as much profit as possible, consider signing up for a FOREX signal service. These services monitor and analyze the market for you and send their findings directly to your computer desktop, email, or SMS on your cell phone or pager.

Companies that offer FOREX signals do so on a paid basis, so you have to sign up and pay a monthly or yearly fee. Some brokers may offer this service as an extra which integrates into their trading software. You can receive signals as a popup on your screen or by any of the other methods described above.

There are usually a limited number of currency pairs that are available for FOREX signals. Most services offer signals on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, but specialized services may offer other currency pairs.

FOREX signals are primarily based on technical analysis of market conditions. Most companies use a combination of indicators to identify main trends and entry and exit points. The results are sent to subscribers who have the option of acting on them or passing. Some services will even execute the trade for you.

Using a variety of technical studies, various types of signals can be derived from currency charts. The SMA (Simple Moving Average) indicates buy signals when currency prices rise above the average line. Sell signals occur when the price falls below the moving average line.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) studies have a signal line that is used to generate a buy signal (above the line) or a sell signal (below the line).

Volume indicators are used to determine market interest. High volume (especially near the bottom of the market) can indicate the start of a new trend while low volume indicates investor uncertainty.

Bollinger Bands indicate potential changes in the market. Sharp price changes tend to occur when the bands tighten while prices that touch one band tend to go all the way to the other band.

Other indicators like volatility and momentum can be used to reinforce signals provided by other sources. Taken together they form a relatively reliable source of information about how the market is behaving.

Are signals a sure thing? Of course not, otherwise we would all be millionaires. Signals can give you good advice about which currencies to trade, but no signal service will guarantee their information is 100% accurate. Reputable services will show you their track record, however, and let you see for yourself how they have done in the past.

FOREX signals cost anywhere from $50 to $200 a month. It’s up to the individual trader to decide if the cost is worth it. Don’t think that signals can take the place of trader education – they are advice, and if you don’t have the knowledge to analyze the advice, you should go back to the books before using a signal service.